A trend detection study examing frost occurrence in New Zealand in response to feedback from kiwifruit and viticulture industries that frost management is a key tool to adapting to climate change.

The Ministry for Primary Industries asked climate researchers to consider what New Zealand might look like in 2100 – and the possible consequences for the country’s primary producers – should we indeed see global warming of around 4oC compared to pre-industrial times (c. 1750).

The Ministry for Primary Industries asked climate researchers to consider what New Zealand might look like in 2100 – and the possible consequences for the country’s primary producers – should we indeed see global warming of around 4oC compared to pre-industrial times (c. 1750).

The Ministry for Primary Industries asked climate researchers to consider what New Zealand might look like in 2100 – and the possible consequences for the country’s primary producers – should we indeed see global warming of around 4oC compared to pre-industrial times (c. 1750).

The New Zealand Integrated Assessment Modelling System (NZIAMS) was developed between July 2010 and June 2013 by researchers at Landcare Research, AgResearch, New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre, and Lincoln University. The project was led by Dr James Lennox, formerly of Landcare Research, who is currently a researcher at Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) in Venice, Italy. Its development was funded by the Ministry for Primary Industries.

Applied adaptation pathways provide a useful framework for strategic planning for primary industries. This report describes the ways in which climate change will affect primary industries in Hawke’s Bay. The regional pathway method provides insight into how decision taken in one domain/sector can have an impact on others, and how the region can prioritise action.

An increasing concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is the most predictable of the global changes that will alter the environment for our biological industries. Predicted temperature changes for New Zealand are lower than the global average prediction (Niwa, 2011) but, because atmospheric CO2 is relatively well mixed, the rate of change in CO2 will be the same as experienced across the globe. CO2 is rising because of the burning of previously sequestered fossil fuels and changes in land use, in particular the conversion of old growth forest to cropland. Predicting future CO2 concentrations is important because of the direct impact of atmospheric CO2 concentration on terrestrial ecosystems and because CO2 is the most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas and thus directly influences potential changes in climate.

This report addresses using scenarios to identify climate risks for the primary sector, different modelling methods to quantitatively estimate risk impacts and the costs/benefits of adaptation options,.and reviews indicator frameworks used by the US, UK and EU. The report recommends that risk assessment should include a range of risk drivers, including physical and socio-economic and that an indicator programme is needed.

Keywords: Climate change, adaptation, risk assessment, risk identification, scenarios, primary sector, indicators

This report details an exploration of the decision context for land use change as an adaptation to climate change in the primary industries. This project focuses on the dynamic interactions between values, rules, and knowledge used by decision makers. The aim is to support adaptation planning in the primary industries, by contributing to the evidence base, and enhance capability and capacity for responding to the risks and opportunities due to climate change.

The impact of floods on the primary sector was first assessed nationally and then for the Awanui River Catchment in Northland. The analyses focused on the impacts of flooding on the primary sector, including changes in land uses as an adaption response to floods with climate change and subsequent changes in economic and environmental indicators. The specific objectives of the analysis are to:

1 quantify New Zealand’s primary sector exposure to flood hazards.

2 quantify the primary sector’s exposure and financial losses from floods in one catchment – the Awanui catchment.

3 analyse the impacts of flooding on land-use change and economic and environmental indicators.

4 evaluate economic and social welfare changes from floods-induced land-use change.

D’Archino, R.; Neill, K.F.; Nelson, W.A.; Fachon, E.; Peat, C. (2019). New Zealand Macroalgae: Distribution and Potential as National Scale Ecological Indicators.

New Zealand Aquatic Environment and Biodiversity Report No.207. 217 p.

Canopy-forming macroalgae are internationally recognised as critical components of coastal ecosystems as primary producers, coastal buffers and provision of habitat. This report evaluates the use of large brown macroalgae as indicators of ecosystem health by: summarising the international and national literature; testing the responses of key species to stressors in culture; investigating a range of approaches to mapping and monitoring, including the use of drones and machine learning to analyse underwater videos.

KPMG was commissioned by Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) to evaluate Te Uru Rakau's (TUR) enablement of he 1 Billion Trees fund (1BT) outcomes.

The scope of this evaluation covers TUR's role in effectively optimising and enabling 1BT's ability to deliver the programme outcomes, not the achievement of the specific outcomes themselves.